Calculate your risk of PWN infection

Modelling module

Dynamic new computer modelling identifies
where and when pine wilt disease will strike


New computer models created by REPHRAME and available on this site enable foresters and land managers to discover whether their trees are likely to be at risk from pine wilt disease (PWD).

Due to the complicated interactions between host, nematode and vector beetle, a variety of modelling approaches are needed to predict the current and future spread of PWD, locally by the Monochamus beetle and globally through trade.
The REPHRAME Evapo-TransPiration+Nematode (ETpN) model has been developed to assess the interaction between eco-climatic factors (soil type, temperature, rainfall, etc.) affecting tree growth and the additional effect of PWN within the tree. The ETpN model considers local factors and links to the spread models including beetle dispersal, beetle flight distance and climate, and also human spread factors such as trade patterns and routes.

This module provides the latest information on conditions likely to result in pine wilt disease and how they relate to, and drive, spread of the nematode through Europe - both naturally in the vector and through human transport.

The images below show outputs of a fast spread scenario for beetle dispersal (for more detail go to spread model).



Using 'live' data from field work in Portugal has enabled more localised models to be developed which specifically concentrate on the disease in Portugal, identifying relationships between wilt and local and climatic parameters.

Finally a European wide risk model has been developed using the ETpN model, which has been checked for accuracy against known tree mortality rates in Japan and Portugal.

Modelling is based on tree susceptibility, temperature regimes, precipitation rates, soil types plus geographic and elevation criteria.

The full model is too complicated for direct use on this website. However, through the validation and sensitivity analysis process, simplified versions are available to enable end users to estimate the likelihood of pine wilt in their regions.

Using the full ETpN module, maps of Europe have been created using a ‘traffic light’ rating system to identify the likelihood of pine wilt disease in any given region; red for high likelihood of wilt, orange for lower or slower expression of wilt and green for very low likelihood of wilt (for more detail go to wilt expression).



     
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