The key parameters in modelling spread of PWN in Europe are:
Capacity of the vector beetle (relatively local, smooth spread)
Expression of wilt as a driver of beetle population growth
Potential human-aided dispersal
Climate as an overall driver of all parameters
These have been brought together in a new model developed by Beneficiary 4 in collaboration with Beneficiaries 1 and 6.
The main components of the modelling approach are shown in the figure below:
The spread model has been used to simulate the potential rates of spread from Portugal by 2012 to other parts of Europe by 2020, taking account of trade, beetle activity and climate during that period.
Red Area shows presence of PWD
Blue Areas show absence of PWD