Just how safe are your forests?

Find out if Pine Wilt Disease is a threat to your trees here!

Monochamus larva (mature)

Monochamus larva (mature)

This simple to use interactive web tool incorporates complicated interactions between host, nematode and vector beetle to look at the likelihood of trees dying in your location.

Using the latest information from REPHRAME, it considers local factors such as vector activity and climate, to estimate the regional risk of pine wilt disease occurring.

The simplified evapo-transpiration model - ETpN - calculates the level of risk of PWD (Pine Wilt Disease) across Europe.

There are two versions, the first uses the mean summer temperature (° C - averaged over June, July and August) and mean annual temperature (° C) at your location, while the second the latitude (decimal degrees), longitude (decimal degrees) and altitude (m) of your location.

The temperature sub-model is more accurate than the location one.

How the model works

Both sub-models are based on susceptible trees and virulent PWN - Pine Wood Nematodes (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) and assume that the vector beetle and nematode are present.

They calculate the risk of a stand of trees, at a particular location or given certain temperature variable, dying from PWD given the presence of PWN.

Limitations

The location sub-model is only valid for longitude values between -9°-55°. This covers most of Europe, with the exception of Iceland, where no wilt is predicted and Madeira, where the model predicts wilt.

The location sub-model uses current European climate and is accurate for current climate but will become less so in future.

For future climates, where we expect summer temperatures to increase, the limit of PWD in Europe is likely to move northwards, the temperature sub-model is much more robust and can even be used to test future climate scenarios.

Temperature Sub-Model

Mean Summer Temperature (° C): Mean Annual Temperature (° C):

Nematode infestation Day:

Risk of PWD:

Chance of Latency:

Expected Tree Death:



Location Sub-Model

Latitude (decimal degrees):

Longitude (decimal degrees):

Altitude (m):

Risk of PWD at your location:



Want to find out more?

Calculate your risk of PWN infection
     
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